Veteran investor and fund manager Bill Miller explains why he thinks that it is currently “very bullish for bitcoin.” Miller noted that Russia has almost 50% of its reserves in currencies that are controlled by people who want to do them harm. Bill Miller’s Crypto Outlook: ‘It’s Very Bullish for Bitcoin’ Famed value investor Bill Miller talked about the outlook for crypto amid a war between Russia and Ukraine in an interview with CNBC Wednesday. He is the founder of Miller Value Partners and currently serves as its chairman and chief investment officer. He manages the firm’s Opportunity Equity and Income Strategy funds. Prior to Miller Value Partners, he co-founded Legg Mason Capital Management. Following its invasion of Ukraine, a growing number of countries have imposed sanctions on Russia. This has caused the Russian ruble and stocks of Russian companies listed abroad to plummet. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said last week: “We will paralyze the assets of Russia’s central bank. This will freeze its transactions. And it will make it impossible for the central bank to liquidate its assets.” Miller explained: “If you look at Russia right now, Russia has 16% of their $640 billion of reserves in dollars. They have 32% in euros. So they have almost 50% of their reserves in currencies that are controlled by people who want to do them harm.” He elaborated: From Russia’s point of view, that’s not a great position to be in. They have 22% in gold and that’s the only part of their reserves which other countries can’t control. The billionaire investor opined: “So I think if you are a country out there that has a non-reserve currency — there’re about a hundred of them — you might think about saying: ‘You know what, maybe we could have something else out there that other countries cannot harm us with, and is impervious to inflation or to being manufactured in greater quantities.” He concluded: So I think it’s very bullish for bitcoin particularly. Miller proceeded to talk about other cryptocurrencies. “The rest of crypto is different,” he added. “I think bitcoin is unique, and the rest of cryptos should be considered as adventure investments because they all try to solve other problems.” The famed value investor has been a bitcoin bull for quite some time. In February, he said he had a “very big” bitcoin position and likened the crypto to digital gold in terms of a hedge against inflation. He also called BTC “insurance against financial catastrophe.”

  The People’s Bank of China, the central bank of the country, claimed in a recent note that China’s share in the global Bitcoin (BTC) transactions has dropped rapidly from over 90% to 10%. The Financial Stability Bureau of the Chinese central bank released a comprehensive note on Wednesday discussing the impact of the crypto crackdown on the financial markets. The official notice claimed that all peer-to-peer exchanges in the country had been eradicated, which eventually curbed the hype around digital currency transactions. A Google translated version of the note read: “The global proportion of Bitcoin transactions in China dropped rapidly from more than 90% to 10%. Severely cracked down on illegal financial activities such as disorderly handling of finance and crackdown on illegal fund-raising crimes.” China is among the few nations that have maintained an outright aggressive stance against crypto use since the beginning. The country’s first ban came in 2013 when it prohibited banks from handling Bitcoin transactions. This was followed by a ban on local cryptocurrency exchanges in 2017, forcing them to shut their operations completely. The country later ramped up its crypto crackdown efforts in 2021, when it carried out multiple regulatory operations to eradicate Bitcoin mining from the country and by September 2021, it had deemed all crypto transactions illegal. According to data from Statista, the annual share of Bitcoin trading volume in the digital yuan has dropped to near zero by 2018, post a ban on cryptocurrency exchanges. The trading volume of BTC in the Chinese yuan might have dropped down to near zero, but the decentralized nature of Bitcoin makes it impossible to ban. After a ban on local crypto exchanges in 2017, many Chinese traders turned to foreign crypto exchanges via VPN. When the Beijing government banned foreign crypto exchanges from offering any services in mainland China as well, the Chinese traders flocked to decentralized finance (DeFi) for anonymous trading.

  Calls from the crypto community for Ukraine to accept other cryptocurrencies have been answered. The official Ukraine Twitter account shared that it will now accept donations from Polkadot (DOT), while other cryptocurrencies will soon be added.  Gavin Wood, the co-founder of Polkadot had previously shared that if the Ukraine wallets were to add DOT, he would personally contribute $5 million. He made true on his promise, donating 298,367.2269896686 DOT, which is roughly $5.7 million, to Ukrainian wallets. Total crypto donations for Ukrainian charities, the military and the government have been over $37 million, by Cointelegraph estimates. Wood’s single donation comprises over 10% of the total crypto donations. Indeed, Wood’s donation is one of the largest individual crypto donations to date. Sam Bankman-Fried’s platform, FTX, donated $25 to each Ukrainian on his exchange platform, while CEO Deepak Thapliyal of Chain.com donated 100 Ether (ETH), or over $280,000 USD. Besides Wood, the Polkadot ecosystem had already contributed over $210,000 to the official DOT wallet for Ukraine since this morning, according to Polkadot blockchain data. For cryptocurrencies not accepted by Ukraine, Coingate, a Lithuanian-based fintech, offers a workaround. As a payment gateway for cryptocurrencies, Coingate allows holders of other cryptos to donate to Ukraine. Coingate manages the crypto payments for a list of over 70 cryptocurrencies, eventually crediting the Ukraine bank account with euros. Coingate told Cointelegraph, “In the past five days, we have raised 7000 EUR from various crypto communities.” To date, the crypto community has been quick to come to the aid of Ukraine with donations and words of encouragement. Twitter observers noted that Ukraine’s innovative crypto activity was an attempt at “making history.”

  According to a recent press release, major bitcoin mining firm BIT Mining Limited has entered a binding investment term sheet with Dory Creek LLC, a subsidiary of cloud mining service Bitdeer, to invest $25.74 million and jointly construct and operate a mining data center in Texas. The total power capacity of the center is expected to be 57.2 megawatts, with more than 85% of this generated by clean and low-carbon energy. BIT Mining has a total bitcoin mining hash rate capacity of over 1,031 petahashes per second. Its BTC.com mining pool currently contributes about 14.79 exahashes per second, or 9.85% of the total network hash rate. It also operates three hydroelectric cryptocurrency data centers and positioned the plans in Texas as a compliment to its mission to leverage only clean energy. “Upon completion of the Texas Mining Center, over 98% of [BIT Mining’s] total power capacity would be generated by clean and low-carbon energy,” according to the release. “Going forward, BIT Mining intends to do its part, fulfill its obligations to achieving carbon neutrality and proactively seek out additional high-quality mining resources overseas.” Texas’ almost nonexistent reserve margin for energy supply, and a relatively low energy cost has made it an attractive place for bitcoin mining operations. Bitmain has set up shop in the state and lawmakers there have outwardly embraced the practice.

  Running crypto businesses is a difficult journey that is not for the faint of heart. However, according to Stephen Ehrlich, the co-founder and CEO of Voyager Digital, patience is the key, and the rewards will come in the long run. Many have invested time and money in developing crypto-related businesses. Reports detailing 2021 show that over $30 billion worth of investments flowed from venture capitals. Ehrlich told Cointelegraph that these VCs and private companies would definitely be rewarded long-term for their faith in crypto. Moreover, he also believes that investors in public companies will also reap rewards. “In 2021, Bitcoin outperformed all major asset classes, one-upping crude oil, NASDAQ, the S&P 500, and gold. Moreover, the number of ‘hodlers’ is trending in a positive direction, signaling crypto’s long-term viability.” The co-founder of the publicly-traded crypto trading platform also notes that the overall growth of the crypto ecosystem manifests in the introduction of benefit programs that allow companies to let employees take a portion of their paychecks in Bitcoin (BTC). “Such mainstream adoption is an incredible sign – not only are people willing to buy and trade crypto, but they’re also willing to work for it. As a society, we are progressing in a direction that puts more store of value in cryptocurrencies.” When asked if running crypto businesses is profitable, Ehrlich gladly shared his own experience within his company. “Voyager’s most recent quarter was our best ever, so I certainly feel it’s a great time to be in crypto,” he said. With global inflation reaching new heights and United States national debt rising, Ehrlich also believes that “Crypto is becoming more and more of a long-term safe haven for future generations.” One of the main advantages of crypto is that it creates economic equality. The Voyager CEO underscores that crypto gives access to investor segments who missed out on past booms. Ehrlich describes being able to provide opportunities to build wealth for this sector as “immensely satisfying” as he mentions the huge advantages found within this industry. While there are many good things, there are also challenges that crypto businesses face. One of these is crypto regulation and policies. However, according to Ehrlich, most of the difficulties that the industry is facing are direct results of its success. He notes that: “With a broader, more encompassing regulatory infrastructure design specifically for digital assets, the crypto industry can flourish.”

  Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoin trading volumes have surged at a major Ukraine cryptocurrency exchange in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion, data shows. According to monitoring resource CoinGecko, on Feb. 24, volume on Kuna almost tripled to over $4 million. Crypto on the radar of Ukrainians As the armed conflict with Russia began, the impact on the fiat currencies of both countries was immediately apparent. While the Russian ruble suffered noticeably more, the Ukrainian hryvnia also fell, targeting 30 per dollar in what would be a new all-time low. Ukraine, which just this month finally ratified a law legalizing cryptocurrency after much to-and-fro between lawmakers, unsurprisingly saw interest in alternatives snap higher. The effect was obvious at seven-year-old Kuna, whose volumes were under $1 million on Feb. 21 but almost $4.1 million three days later. As per the CoinGecko data, the fervor has already begun to subside after the initial rush, this coinciding with stabilizing fiat rates versus the United States dollar and other major currencies. Less clear were Kuna’s own rates, these showing a curious spread on either side of the Bitcoin spot price. At the time of writing, BTC/USD traded at $38,300 on Bitstamp, while Kuna’s USD pair was over $40,000. Central bank tightens currency freedoms A separate argument for entry into Bitcoin, meanwhile, came from government currency controls this week. On Wednesday, the National Bank of Ukraine began restricting cash, limiting hryvnia withdrawals to 100,000 UAH ($3,353) per day, and banning cross-border foreign currency purchases and withdrawals outright.  A Facebook post confirmed that the bank also sought to establish a stable hryvnia exchange rate. Russia’s central bank, meanwhile, began intervening in forex markets to prop up its nosediving ruble Thursday, with several moves seemingly occurring over the past 24 hours.

  Lord Fusitu’a, a former member of the Tongan parliament, has shared a timeline for the country’s plan to adopt Bitcoin (BTC). A Tongan nobleman, Fusitu’a had previously disclosed the four-step plan, a copy of the Salvadoran Bitcoin playbook. Step one is remittance, two is legal tender, three is Bitcoin mining, and four is moving national treasuries into Bitcoin, effectively upgrading the nation onto a Bitcoin standard. During a Twitter spaces conversation, Fusitu’a shed light on steps two and three, providing a timeline for when these changes could come into place. Lord Fusitu’a told Cointelegraph: “Let’s say the [legal tender] bill is passed in beginning to mid-October. After this, the bill goes to the palace office for three to four weeks. HM [His Majesty] will either give or not give royal ascent by mid-November.” The bill is then passed back to the government to undergo the “gazette” process. The gazette serves to notify the public of changes. Now, given that prayer week takes place in Tonga in the first week of January, Lord Fusitu’a is confident that by the second week of January 2023, the gazette will have been announced. For the legal tender bill coming into force: “Conservatively, the earliest date realistically is the beginning to the middle of February as the activation date. It could be much, much earlier if the last three steps are rushed through — which I have seen before.” Lord Fusitu’a concluded that “all things being equal, let’s say mid-February.” In terms of the country’s Bitcoin mining operations, the potential is staggering. Tonga has 21 volcanoes (a Bitcoin coincidence) that produce in excess of 2,000 megawatts (MW) of power annually. The national grid consumes 40 MW per year, meaning Tonga has “a potential 1960 MW with nothing to do.” However, in order to mine effectively, the government might need to be on board, while internet infrastructure must be robust. Tonga is an archipelago of more than 170 islands and 21 volcanoes in the Pacific Ocean. Source: NationsOnline Fortunately, broadband infrastructure will not pose a barrier to expanding internet and mining operations due to a deal made over eight years ago with the international financial institution The World Bank. Lord Fusitu’a’s mother negotiated The World Bank telecommunications deal that has effectively “futureproofed” their bandwidth infrastructure. Lord Fusitu’a’s legal background came in handy during negotiations, as he was able to oversee the deal thanks to his deep understanding of the country’s fiber cable infrastructure. In a nutshell, Tonga has “enough bandwidth to expand for the next 100 years.” Plus, as almost every house in Tonga has access to fiber connectivity as the cable is laid “to the door,” home mining is an accessible reality. As such, the 2020s could see Tongan households mining at home using cheap surplus volcanic energy. For the country to reach a level of Bitcoin mining on a national scale, the government must be on its side. Lord Fusitu’a told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin mining could take place “as early as Q3 2023” and that the government is likely to be onboard.  “The mining operations could be privately operated or in a joint venture with the government. There might be a need for a new state-owned enterprise for it to take off,” he said. Currently, Bitcoin mining companies that are keen to see the Tongan Bitcoin story play out have gifted Lord Fusitu’a mining rigs in 40-foot shipping containers to test out capacity. The companies remain secret. Nonetheless, the publicly laid plans to drive Bitcoin adoption in Tonga are certainly gaining traction.

  In the event of harsh Western sanctions as Russian forces invade Ukraine, retail customers could risk losing their savings. Russians’ savings could be confiscated in response to sanctions against the country, according to Nikolai Arefiev, a member of the country’s Communist Party and vice-chairman of the Duma’s committee on economic policy. The Russian government can potentially seize about 60 trillion rubles ($750 billion) worth of people’s deposits should Western nations decide to block all of Russia’s foreign funds, Arefiev said in an interview with the local news agency News.ru on Monday. “If all the foreign funds are blocked, the government will have no other choice but to seize all the deposits of the population, or 60 trillion rubles in order to solve the situation,” the official stated, noting that Russia stores over $640 billion of gold and foreign exchange reserves abroad. He also mentioned that potential sanctions against Russia include a possible disconnection from SWIFT and foreign exchange prohibitions. Russian President Vladimir Putin officially announced a special military operation in Ukraine, potentially pulling the trigger on a set of sanctions on Russia’s largest banks, including state-backed Sberbank and VTB. According to local reports, Sberbank mistakenly made a statement on being included in the list of sanctions by the United States on Thursday night but subsequently removed the notice, claiming that the statement was false and was caused by a “website crash.” At the time of writing, Sberbank’s website reads that Sberbank and all its systems are operating as normal, while clients and legal entities have access to their funds and services in full. “We are ready for any development of the situation and have worked out scenarios to guarantee the protection of the funds, assets and interests of our clients, as well as to ensure the regular operation of all our functions,” the notice says. On Thursday, Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared that it would make sure to respond to potential Western sanctions, stating, “Make no mistake, we will respond strongly to these sanctions, not necessarily in a symmetrical manner, but the response will be well calibrated and will not fail to affect the United States.” Balaji Srinivasan, a crypto investor and former chief technology officer of Coinbase, suggested that the ministry was threatening a cyberwar with the West: The latest news comes as the Russian ruble plummets to an all-time low against the U.S. dollar, with indexes surging up to 115 rubles or more per U.S. dollar for those who want to buy dollars on the open market, up 35% from 74 rubles just a couple of weeks ago. According to local reports, Sberbank was offering its clients to buy dollars at 100 rubles on Thursday. The latest events have triggered a massive impact on the Russian stock market and cryptocurrency markets, with Bitcoin (BTC) briefly dropping below $35,000 for the first time since June 2021, according to data from CoinGecko. The total market capitalization tumbled below $1.7 trillion for the first time since August last year. According to Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO of FTX cryptocurrency exchange, the massive sell-off on crypto and stock markets is “to pay for war.”

  Bitcoin (BTC) kept falling lower on Feb. 21 as $38,000 became the latest level to fail the test for bulls. $40,000 eyed as BTC relief bounce target While threatening to invalidate analysts’ hopes of a bottom being in, the chances of a rebound to $40,000 were nonetheless good, one argued. “Not expecting this leg to go very deep tho, should see a bounce towards 40k soon,” Crypto Ed told Twitter followers. In a video update on the day, Crypto Ed had forecast a multi-leg downtrend continuing, with $40,000 forming the target of a relief bounce before another dive ensued, this even having the potential to take out $30,000. “If we somehow manage to get back above $40,000 and go up, then I’m bullish; otherwise not,” he concluded, adding that it would take a “miracle” for such a bullish case to come true. To the downside, a silver lining came in the form of increasing bids at $37,000 appearing on the Binance order book as BTC/USD drifted lower. Data from monitoring resource Material Indicators further highlighted large transactions staying fairly constant, indicating institutional-grade investors maintaining interest in BTC exposure.  Smaller buyers, however, were in two minds at current levels. “Some bid liquidity in the $20k range has faded upward to the $30s, but want to see a bigger concentration of bids to get market buyers off hands,” Material Indicators creator Material Scientist added in comments on a chart showing the latest action. A familiar Chinese tech plunge enters A Wall Street holiday, meanwhile, meant a lack of convincing volume on crypto markets Monday, this being apt to exacerbate moves in any direction due to thin liquidity. Macro cues, however, continued to flow in, with developments from the Russia–Ukraine conflict primed to unsettle already nervous sentiment. Reports of death on the border came as European stock markets jittered, the FTSE 100 down 0.5% in London and Germany’s DAX down 1.3% on the day. Another crackdown on tech in China fuelled separate troubles for Asian markets, with Tencent shedding over 6% during trading. The tech stock rout was highly reminiscent of July 2021, the period during which Bitcoin retraced the entirety of its year-to-date gains to bottom out at near $29,000.

  First, know your memes. HODL began as a typo for the word “hold” on a bitcointalk.com forum, and the crypto community found it so amusing that they now use “HODL” as a term to denote holding (rather than selling) one’s cryptocurrency.  In December 2017, bitcoin brought seasonal cheer to investors as its price gathered pace and broke records. The heady run-up in its price had bitcoin enthusiasts making wild forecasts about its price down the line. Three months later into 2018, their prognoses were gloomier. The cryptocurrency’s price was down by more than two-thirds from its December high and roughly 47 percent off from the start of the year. Since, bitcoin has been known for its wild fluctuations in price—volatility that bitcoin investors have come to expect, although that doesn’t make it any less anxiety-inducing when money is involved. If bitcoin were a stock, its price movement this year would be cause for serious concern. Naturally, bitcoin’s price movements have forced investors to reconsider their opinion about the cryptocurrency. Here’s a brief recap of the bull and bear case for bitcoin. Should you HODL? 1:23 Click Play to Learn What HODL Means The Bear Case for Bitcoin  Several factors are weighing on the current price of bitcoin. For starters, a steady stream of hacks and scandals from within the cryptocurrency ecosystem has ensured that the currency’s reputation as a venue for criminal activities persists. The most prominent example in 2019 was the case of the Japanese exchange Coincheck, where hackers made off with $500 million worth of cryptocurrency. The price for bitcoin slid along with that of other cryptocurrencies. The introduction of bitcoin futures (and the entry of institutional money into its ecosystem) was supposed to cut back on volatility. Regulators and economists across the world have added to the pressure by criticizing bitcoin in public forums. Their stance has made governments wary of bringing bitcoin under legal cover. Online platforms, which enthusiastically embraced bitcoin after its launch, have joined bitcoin bears and imposed restrictions or dropped cryptocurrencies from their ecosystems altogether. Alphabet Inc.’s subsidiaries Google (GOOG), Facebook Inc. (FB), Twitter Inc. (TWTR), and Reddit are among some of the big names that have curbed cryptocurrency ads and have all but blocked bitcoin payments.   Even positive news comes with an undercurrent of skepticism. For example, bitcoin’s transaction fees, whose high price was considered a deterrent to mass adoption, fell. But that decline was accompanied by a corresponding slide in volumes. Technological solutions, such as the adoption of the Lightning Network and Segregated Witness, were supposed to be a panacea to bitcoin’s scaling problems because they speed up the network. But among other problems, they currently are responsible for processing only a minuscule amount of transactions. The Bull Case for Bitcoin  The primary bull case for bitcoin is based on the virtues of patience. It points to the cryptocurrency’s previous price action as proof that bitcoin’s price will rise again.  Among the most prominent proponents of this theory is noted analyst Thomas Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, who advises holding bitcoin. “Market timing is generally discouraged in traditional equity investing. If an investor missed out on the 10 best days (for S&P 500) each year, the annualized return drops to 5.4 percent (ex-10 best), from 9.2 percent. In other words, the case for buy and hold equities is the opportunity cost of missing out on the 10 best days,” he wrote.1 He applied the same logic and wrote that annual returns for bitcoin drop to 25 percent annually if investors remove the 10 highest performing days each year from the equation. In fact, according to Fundstrat data, bitcoin’s returns are negative if one excludes the top 10 day gains. Lee has a midyear price target of $20,000 and an end-of-year target of $25,000 for bitcoin.  Recent actions by governments and regulatory agencies also indicate a thawing of positions related to cryptocurrency in the future. New bitcoin ETFs also introduce further liquidity into bitcoin’s ecosystem. Technical developments within bitcoin’s network also point to a brighter future. The list of nodes accepting Lightning Network is increasing. Large platforms, such as Coinbase, have begun implementing SegWit technology. For believers in a future rise of bitcoin’s price, these measures may help avoid the problems that plagued bitcoin as its price skyrocketed last year and may ensure a firmer support level for future gains.  The Bottom Line  The bulls are of the opinion that bitcoin’s price follows a predictable pattern based on previous trends and that it will rise again. The bears, however, point to increasingly negative sentiment and scandals associated with the original cryptocurrency to make their case for selling bitcoin.  Investing in cryptocurrencies and other Initial Coin Offerings (“ICOs”) is highly risky and speculative, and this article is not a recommendation by Investopedia or the writer to invest in cryptocurrencies or other ICOs. Since each individual’s situation is unique, a qualified professional should always be consulted before making any financial decisions. Investopedia makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or timeliness of the information contained herein. As of the date this article was written, the author does not own cryptocurrency. Compete Risk Free with $100,000 in Virtual Cash Put your trading skills to the test with our FREE Stock Simulator. Compete with thousands of Investopedia traders and trade your way to the top! Submit trades in a virtual environment before you start risking your own money. 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