Former CIA Chief Warns: Moldova and Baltic States at Risk If Ukraine Falls

As Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds on with no clear resolution in sight, former CIA Director General David Petraeus has issued a chilling warning: If Vladimir Putin succeeds in his objectives in Ukraine, the conflict may not end there. In remarks that have sparked debate among security experts and European leaders, Petraeus highlighted Moldova and the Baltic states as likely targets should Russian aggression continue unchecked.

Putin’s Long Game: More Than Just Ukraine

Petraeus, a retired four-star general with decades of military and intelligence experience, is not prone to alarmism. Yet his analysis is stark. “Putin’s ambition is not limited to Ukraine,” Petraeus told reporters. “He seeks to reclaim influence—if not control—over territories that once belonged to the Soviet Union. If he wins in Ukraine, Moldova is next. After that, it could be one of the Baltic states.”

This assessment aligns with a growing body of intelligence indicating that Putin’s strategic vision involves reversing the post-Cold War order in Eastern Europe. His infamous 2005 statement that the collapse of the Soviet Union was “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century” continues to serve as a chilling guidepost for his foreign policy.

Why Moldova?

Moldova, a small landlocked country nestled between Ukraine and Romania, has long been in a precarious geopolitical position. Although it declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Moldova has struggled with internal divisions, corruption, and Russian interference.

One major flashpoint is Transnistria—a breakaway region supported by Moscow since the early 1990s, where around 1,500 Russian troops remain stationed. Despite Moldova’s pro-European leanings in recent years, the presence of Russian military forces and separatist sentiment in Transnistria makes the country vulnerable to Kremlin manipulation or even military incursion.

“Transnistria gives Putin a pretext and a foothold,” Petraeus said. “It’s the classic playbook—claim protection of Russian-speaking populations and use that as justification for aggression.”

The Baltic States: NATO’s Front Line

While Moldova is not a member of NATO, the Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—are. All three have long warned of the Russian threat, having experienced decades of Soviet occupation. Since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, the Baltics have dramatically increased their defense spending and deepened their integration with NATO forces.

Yet Petraeus warns that this may not be enough. “If Putin senses weakness or disunity within NATO, he may test the alliance’s resolve, perhaps through hybrid warfare, disinformation, or cyberattacks before any direct military action.”

This form of “gray zone warfare” has already been witnessed. In recent years, Baltic countries have endured repeated cyberattacks, border provocations, and efforts to foment unrest among their Russian-speaking minorities.

Lithuania, in particular, has taken bold stands against Russia, including cutting off the transit of sanctioned goods to Kaliningrad—a Russian exclave wedged between Lithuania and Poland. Such moves have raised the stakes in an already tense region.

Europe Reacts to the Warning

Petraeus’s comments have echoed across European capitals. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius recently warned that Russia could be capable of attacking NATO members within five to eight years. Meanwhile, officials in the UK, Poland, and the Nordic states have begun publicly discussing scenarios for potential military escalation in Eastern Europe.

“We can’t afford complacency,” said Latvian Defense Minister Andris Sprūds. “The security of Ukraine is the security of Europe.”

Across NATO, military drills have been scaled up, stockpiles replenished, and readiness levels raised. Still, analysts caution that unity must be maintained. Any sign of wavering commitment—particularly from larger powers like the U.S., Germany, or France—could encourage Kremlin adventurism.

The Role of the United States

Under President Joe Biden, the U.S. has provided substantial support to Ukraine, both in military aid and diplomatic backing. Petraeus, however, criticized the incremental nature of this support.

“We gave Ukraine enough to survive, not to win,” he noted. “That needs to change. A Russian victory in Ukraine would reverberate across Europe.”

He also stressed the importance of continued U.S. presence in Eastern Europe and warned against isolationist tendencies. “American leadership is indispensable. If we retreat, a power vacuum will be filled—not by friends, but by foes.”

Could Putin Risk Attacking NATO?

While attacking Moldova may carry minimal risk of immediate retaliation from the West, targeting a NATO country would trigger Article 5—the alliance’s collective defense clause. That’s a high-stakes move, one most experts believe Putin is unlikely to attempt directly.

But Petraeus warns that the Kremlin might pursue ambiguous aggression, testing NATO’s boundaries. “He doesn’t need tanks to roll across borders. He can use cyberattacks, economic pressure, or political sabotage. The danger is not always in full-scale war, but in the slow erosion of sovereignty and unity.”

Conclusion: Vigilance is Vital

Petraeus’s warning is not a prophecy, but a possibility—one rooted in the logic of geopolitical ambition and the lessons of history. The future of Europe, he argues, hinges on whether the West can demonstrate resilience, unity, and strategic foresight.

“Moscow only respects strength,” Petraeus concluded. “The price of deterring aggression is always less than the cost of confronting it once it begins. We must act now to ensure that Ukraine is not the beginning of a broader tragedy.”

As Europe confronts an increasingly uncertain future, the question lingers: If Ukraine falls, who’s next? And will the West be ready?