Bitcoin has shown itself to be wanting yet again, at the first signs of geopolitical problems. Furthermore, there is some noise coming out of Canada that Bitcoin wallets have been seized by the Canadian government. If that is in fact the case, it for the most part wipes out the entire argument of “being out of the system.” While I think it is a little early to call the end of crypto in general, the reality is that Bitcoin is an ever evolving narrative that seems to shift with the breeze.
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All of that being said, it looks like we are heading towards the $40,000 level. That is an area that is significant support and if we break down below there it opens up the possibility of a move towards the $36,000 level where we had bounced from previously. Anything below that opens up the possibility of a move to the $30,000 level, and possibly even kicking off “crypto winter”, when markets do nothing for quite some time and languish at lower levels. In that scenario, Bitcoin could find itself down at $20,000 rather quickly. The last time this happened, Bitcoin found itself near $3300.
I do not necessarily think that is what is going to happen, but it certainly should be noted that the 50 day EMA has been a bit like a “brick wall” for the market. This is not a good look for Bitcoin, because it was supposed to be safety from all of the nonsense. It clearly behaves like any other financial asset that is on the risk curve. Bitcoin gets dumped rather quickly in times of concern or tightening financial conditions, because most of the big money uses it as a speculative asset, and nothing more than that. This is a great lesson in “this time it is different” being a farce.
What you really need to see for Bitcoin to start rallying again is some type of risk appetite reentering the market. We clearly do not have that right now, and with all of the nonsense going on at the Ukrainian border, I do not know that we are going to get it anytime soon. Again, I am not necessarily calling for a meltdown, but I am pointing out that the downtrend is still intact as things stand right now.